Ok, this is just an idea, but I would like everyones opinion to see if it is viable or not...

Since funding seems to be Cyan's main problem, as is their un-assurances of if community funding can support URU... Why doesn't cyan set up some sort of "preordering" system? Where the community could preorder the service and give some funding to cyan. If the development team is as small as they say, this funding (no matter how insignificant) could keep MORE in development for the time being. (even if cyan does not make a profit off of it, I am sure they would prefer to keep the cogs of the URU wheel going, and put this behind them) Because once MORE is up and running, they don't have to worry about much else.

I know various "Donation" ideas have been suggested in the past. Other users have wanted to blindly throw cash at cyan, but what about some sort of organized preordering system. Each user can donate $25 US, and get some sort of confirmation code to make an account when MORE launches...

Companies like Telltale Gameshave been using a preorder system to take funds for titles still in development for a few years now... But the main reason for their success is because *they deliver* on those preorders, and if Cyan did set up some sort of system like that... they would need to assure us that we would get *something* out of it.

Anyways, Do you think that enough of us would be willing to pre-order MORE? (to cover the development costs)

I think most of us would, and I have confidence that the idea would work, But they would need to do two things...
#1. ) They would need to give us an exact time line for completion, and release date. The old "it will be done when we finish" will no longer be valid... With our income it will be expected of them to develop the project on a regular schedule until it is ready to be launched. They will also be expected to keep to that schedule/release date with minimal delays.
#2. ) Cyan would need to make more of an effort to tell us what is being done with the project. (I.E. have one of the developers keep a weekly development progress log online)

As a fall back, in case our funds are insufficient (I.E. If we are somehow unable to muster up what it would cost them to run the online service), I think they should use the funds to at least ready the software. Then release the software through this website as a single player game (with the ability to go live built in for when the servers are ready, much like ABM had)

This way, we would all get at least *something* for our trouble, even if it is not a fully online game (yet). Then perhaps, if they ever decide to give up on running their own server, they could just let us run our own with very little required from them.

Another major benefit to this way of development.. is that if cyan themselves host MORE, our progress could be stored on our own computers. All the cyan server would need to be used for is authentication and client data transfer (not for player data storage) which would decrease on the size of the network they need.

Anyways, It would be nice to at least get a copy of MORE that we can keep (and still play) out of this... ABM has become somewhat dated, and I really want to see some of the Live ages in person again. (and no, I don't want to use drizzle... so do not even go there)

So what do you think? would you preorder MORE if cyan were top enact the above proposal?

P.S. lets see how many people say no to this just because they can... The above proposal was actually given to me by an old business major friend who currently runs a local software development company. According to him, he does not see anything getting better with the situation, and he says this idea is the ONLY way that MORE will ever be completed.

If Cyan were to set up a pre-ordering system with a reasonable price and delivery date, I would pay.

_________________
The future is always revealed to those who wait.
But the proud have no patience.
Because of pride, the destruction will come.

The Watcher
Words 4:81-83

If I could get myself into the true believer mental state again, I'd gladly send them a preorder. In fact I'd be willing to have them double the previously announced price if that would help. But all of that depends on them being more open about what is going on, keeping us informed on a regular basis, and having them commit to something useful coming out of it before a fixed deadline.

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What constitutes completion?

Who is to define it?

Lacking this information, how can development costs be determined?

How could a delivery date and production schedule be established?

Not knowing development costs, on what basis are we able to speculate if enough of us would pre-order to cover those unknown costs?

What evidence exists that a standalone version of MORE (MOUL?) could be provided by Cyan that would run in a non-server environment without any changes to the current code?

Again, its just an outline of an idea.. Cyan would need to provide the specifics (Provided they were willing to try something like this)

But from the gist of Chogon's posts, I think that MORE is very close to completion... (I wont think it would take much to get them over this hurdle, not with $25-50 coming from each of us)

To me, it all sounds like the major fees are just in labor (with licensing and server cost on the side)

So lets imagine about 500 of us preorder/participate in MORE... Thats about $12,500, and at minimum wage that would pay for 2 employees to work on the project (40 hours a week) for about 2 months... Not counting the cost of the servers (but it sounds like they may already have a network in place)

Keep in mind that no matter what else they put into it, as soon as they get the game online, they should immediately see a (minimal) return on their investment... (it does not cost much to maintain a server network, even less if they simply rent space from a server farm)

Also, it would not take much to get the game to run off line... just 3 changes to the main executable and its supporting files (most of them are just anti hacking measures that need to be disabled)

*various files stored on the server would need to be included
- The game pulls a few key files to run off the server when it starts, those would need to be included.
- The game looks to the server for the sate description files, these would also need to be included.
- The game stores its save data in an online vault, these would need to be redirected to a folder on the users computer (likewise with the user/avie data)

*various parts of the game that require server communication would need to be reworked (to not need them)
- The game compares its file checksums against the server on startup, this would need to be disabled
- The game sends a message to the server after every action and waits for a return, this would need to be disabled

*(optional) certain ages that require multiplayer participation will need to be reprogramed to work with one avie

(I think there might be others, but I never knew much about MOUL's technical data anyways)

As you say, this has all been discussed before.
And people have tried to estimate the costs, the potential for income, and the likelihood of economic success before.

I'm no better at this than any of those that have gone before, possibly worse. But here's another attempt to run some numbers on this question. Please understand that this is all guesswork; if you disagree with my guesstimates then just work upward or downward from the numbers I'm tossing out here.

How much would such a venture cost?
If Cyan were to hold to its stated model for MORE, with two people working to modify MORE code to handle UCC, setting up and maintaining authentication and data servers, getting the Max plug-ins out, and establishing some minimal amount of community-regulating protocol, I'll guess you'd have two people working full-time for 6 months to a year, then maybe one person working half-time or full-time thereafter. For the first two years, that's between 1.75 and 3 person-years. I don't know the rates Cyan is paying, but I'd like to think someone in such a position should be making at least $70,000 per year. Based on that, personnel costs in the first two years would run $122,500 to $210,000. Plus other costs for hardware and hookups, let's call it $150,000 to $250,000 - that's $75,000 to $125,000/year average.

How many people would chip in?
To my knowledge, we've never seen numbers from Cyan regarding the number of participants in URU Online or MO:UL (since this wouldn't have helped their chances with benefactors such as GameTap). But we know that these very forums have 13,190 registered users, and we can guess that almost all of these were MO:UL players at one time or another. In fact, we can guess that not all players registered to these forums. Let's generously say we call it even, that the number of players that didn't register is equal to the number of registrants that didn't - or wouldn't - pay specifically for MO:UL (i.e. there were many explorers that played because they were already on GameTap). Let's then offer a (rather optimistic, I think) guess that we can actually get 1/3 of the people registered here to pay up the suggested $50/year for MORE.

Using those additionally iffy assumptions:
1/3 of 13,190 = 4397
4397 X $50.00 = $219,850
......per year average, well above my cost guesstimate above.

If I was a business that wanted to determine whether there was any chance of this being a success, I'd send an e-mail to every one of the 13,190-plus addresses on the MO:UL player list, asking whether they'd commit to paying $50 up front for a year of MORE. I'd even ask them whether they were willing and able to commit to higher contribution amounts. Then I'd lop off at least 1/3 for those that wouldn't subsequently follow through on their verbal commitment, before estimating whether MORE was feasible as a business proposition. And - although I admire both Cyan and Chogon for their honesty - I'd do that BEFORE telling everyone that everything was going on hold.

MORE was going to be an at-cost operation. No profit for Cyan. It is critical for the community to understand how important that is, and why it means MORE cannot occur presently.

Cyan is privately held, so some of the pressure to produce great profits is reduced... but private investors can exert similar pressures, and profit is needed anyway because without it you have no money with which to invest in improvements, research and new development. The only way MORE is likely to happen is if Cyan is making sufficient profit elsewhere that a little non-profit side project is justifiable. Otherwise, it's all-available-hands on deck to keep the ship afloat. That is what we're seeing now.

_________________

MOULa 26838 | Prologue Video Project: On Hold pending Minkata support
Visit rel.to to explore Myst, Uru, and D'ni communities!

The preordering concept is nice, but I have no idea if the numbers would add up.

The problem with preordering is that we don't know if Cyan's ordering system is even ready yet. If it isn't, that poses an obstacle.

MO:RE is (in any case) less than three months of work from opening. Three months. At the most. Maybe two. If Cyan can't find an allocatable income stream that can be used to fund that 2-3 months of part-time work, then maybe someone at Cyan should make a suggestion as follows:

Point #1): MO:RE probably has, at bare minimum, 6,000 fans who will sign up for it as soon as it opens. Probably thousands more than that.

Point #2): That means $150,000, if not more, in subscriptions during the first week Uru reopens.

Point #3): 2-3 months of part-time work, by two people, cannot possibly cost that much.

Therefore I, (Cyan employee name), propose that I will work on starting up MO:RE, part-time, for the next two months or so, with no immediate pay, but with the signed promise from Cyan's CEO, Rand Miller, that I will be paid for my hours worked using a deduction from the first batch of MO:RE subscriptions, as well as an additional bonus of, say, $2500, to be paid at that time in the same way (which is my motivation for accepting a two-month task in which I will not be paid anything for it until it is done.)

For any Cyan employee to strike such a deal, of course, they'd need to have a fair amount of faith in the fanbase to generate a reasonably solid number of subscriptions.

In any case, I do believe - and I hope that Cyan believes - that MO:RE is a good business idea in the long term. I know, Marten, that it's thought of as an at-cost operation that can barely even break even - I get that - but I do think it can potentially turn a profit in the long run, because I believe that the fans are creative enough and focused enough to build it to that point, where it can pull in more subscribers than anticipated.

Once MO:RE is actually up, running costs will be minimal, but the flow of content from the fans should be rather good, and the userbase (I think) will probably pay more in subscription fees than the game costs to run. If the Myst Movie project takes off, that may give a large boost to MO:RE as well.

So I see MO:RE as something that will be a money-loser at first but a source of profit after a while. I understand that that's not certain, and I more than understand Cyan's business decision, but I believe MO:RE can succeed and ultimately make money for Cyan.

I do honestly believe that MO:RE can be a source of profit, if Cyan can find some way to get the remaining bit of preperatory work done. Cyan has already put a reasonable amount of time and effort into setting up MO:RE. They only need to find some way to work on it a little more before the project will generate a rapid yield of, I think, $200,000+, followed by a similar sum each six months. MO:RE costs so little to run that it should turn a profit even with our niche fanbase. The trick is getting Cyan to recognize that, while it'll be hard to keep working on it for the next 2-3 months of work needed (people might need to work with deferred pay or some other unpleasant method to do it) it'll be a good source of revenue once it is open. At least, I believe it will.

As for me, I've been shifting my advertising methods over time. I like banner advertising now, mostly.

My site www.urucontinues.com has been visited by over 12,500 people so far, but could go much higher if I weren't waiting for MO:RE to actually show up before promoting it heavily.

I am doing pretty well on my banner ad campaigns. I'm a graphics person and Uru is very visually interesting and easy to advertise. I get pretty decent click-through rates on my banners, which is why I usually go by impressions instead of clicks. I've built up a personal list of banner systems that I think offer good flexibility and value.

I get about 1.7 visitors clicking through for every cent spent on my best ads, so if I spend about $60.00 on an ad campaign, and do a really good job with it, I could end up with maybe 3 million people seeing an Uru banner ad, and 10,000 actually clicking on it and viewing my Uru site.

In any case, I'm just waiting here earning money doing stuff, so whenever MO:RE actually does open, maybe I'll have a little over a hundred dollars waiting, earmarked specifically for a fan-run Uru ad banner campaign.

So, I don't know, if half of one percent of the first 10,000 web visitors actually subscribe to MO:RE,
that's $1,250 in additional Cyan income in the first six months. But how many actually will subscribe, I don't know.

Next, of course, somebody at Cyan will be telling me that a banner advertising campaign (no spam!) directed at a site that I own, which has a disclaimer saying it's a fan-run site and not sanctioned by Cyan, is still unacceptable, and that even a tiny $60-$100 ad campaign by a fan for a Cyan product, is against Cyan policy.

That's how it always seems to go. I do something enthusiastic but stupid/bizarre every day that demonstrates my total incapacity for human thought patterns. Someday I'll do something which actually looks like it was done by a human, and people will like it a little bit and encourage me to do more of it, and I will be deeply confused as to how, exactly, I suceeded in doing something normal and thus will be unable to recreate it a second time.

But for now, I'm happy to be the weird, extremist fan who has his own Uru fansite, has finished every Myst game, who has created Myst fangames/fan art, and who has chatted with all of the Miller brothers via email or Uru.

Just saying, I think I can help Cyan a little, and do it correctly this time. If anybody wants me to, that is - and if MO:RE ever actually opens.

I hope that Cyan has the sense to try to reopen Uru relatively soon, so that the fans don't give up, get bored, and wander off into other things (that is, opening MO:RE soon keeps the number of potential subscribers from dropping) and so Uru can run (and generate income) for as long as possible before finally and inevitably becoming technologically obsolete. (Thus, if it opens soon, MO:RE generates a stream of income for a greater length of time)

In other words, if Cyan can't find a way to open MO:RE relatively quickly, it will limit their potential for revenue off of it.

And yet -- how can they afford to get it open quickly? There doesn't seem to be any really viable option from a financial standpoint. It's a bad situation.

_________________
Matthew L. Hornbostel, creator of Panoramic Worlds,
a Myst fansite , and
various other stuff.

Last edited by matthornb on Thu Oct 09, 2008 1:52 am; edited 1 time in total

well, as a possibility, they might not take it fully online, but rather re-instate the shards that came before MO:UL. granted, there could be problems with people getting the whole server files, etc., but who knows (i sure dont. i wasnt there for the shards)?

_________________
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DJ of Raider Rave Radio (Fan Page)

"MO:RE probably has, at bare minimum, 6,000 fans who will sign up for it as soon as it opens. Probably thousands more than that."

You think? I figure 500 fans still paying attention, maybe as many as 1000. Some of those will sign up. Some won't.

"...will work on starting up MO:RE, part-time, for the next two months or so, with no immediate pay..."

You're thinking about it wrong. Marten said it: all hands on deck to keep the company afloat. Nobody has *time* to work without pay.

_________________
Andrew Plotkin (KI#00102725)
Uru Newcomer's Guide and Answer Sheet
-- http://eblong.com/zarf/uru/newfaq.html

Marten wrote:

MORE was going to be an at-cost operation. No profit for Cyan. It is critical for the community to understand how important that is, and why it means MORE cannot occur presently.

If Cyan wants to assure themselves that MORE will never turn a profit, I'm sure that can be arranged!
But according to my admittedly wild guess at coming up with some numbers above, it seems like it's possible that MORE could be dangerously close to being profitable. Even if my numbers are far off the mark, it seems like it could at least break even. But unless Cyan makes an effort at polling its base and seeing what level of support MORE might have, they'll never know the information that most companies try to verify before giving any business venture a Yea or Nay.

Or maybe there is something this community member really isn't understanding about this "no profit for Cyan" concept...

What Marten said. I think he put is very well. I will wait .

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URU MOUL Lives

Quote:

Or maybe there is something this community member really isn't understanding about this "no profit for Cyan" concept...

Actually it seems more like a number of people don’t understand written English.

“Currently, Cyan is redirecting its priorities to focus only on fully funded projects.” --- Chogon

This isn’t some game-based puzzle challenge. This is a corporate business decision made by the only people who have the appropriate business information to rightfully make it.

No amount of speculation from ignorance is likely to change that.

Yet watch what happens…

Regnad Kcin wrote:

Quote:

Or maybe there is something this community member really isn't understanding about this "no profit for Cyan" concept...

Actually it seems more like a number of people don’t understand written English.

“Currently, Cyan is redirecting its priorities to focus only on fully funded projects.” --- Chogon

This isn’t some game-based puzzle challenge. This is a corporate business decision made by the only people who have the appropriate business information to rightfully make it.

No amount of speculation from ignorance is likely to change that.

Yet watch what happens…

These are potential ideas, not "speculation from ignorance". Being nasty isn't going to get people to shut up. I think everyone should keep the ideas coming, but not mandate Cyan "must!" do what they say. As you attempted to say, only Cyan has the numbers to determine if a proposal will work.

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-Whilyam

Regnad Kcin wrote:

Yet watch what happens…

Spot On!

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semplers' shards