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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:29 pm 
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CAVCON was 4.9 , then a few days later, today at log in it is at 2.0 :?:
Was there an update that took all the money ?
Seems like there is a vulture in the sky that swoops down to get it, when it sees a new nest egg :?:


Last edited by TrapperDave on Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:31 pm 
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Looks like a post fund drive dip to me (We'll blame it on Black Friday ;) ). My guess is that it'll pick back up come January. :)

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 4:14 pm 
To clarify: CavCon itself is at 4.7, which is the highest it's ever been. The 2.0 we see is the donation meter, which means that at present, donations will not cover projected server costs. If we donate, this number will go up. When it reaches 3.0, donations will cover server costs, and if it reaches 4.0 or more, donations will cover server costs, and the reserve fund will be added to, and CavCon will increase.

Hope that helps, and let's make that 4.7 a 5!


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 4:49 pm 
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Indeed. It's at 2.0 because this is the beginning of the month, so nobody has donated yet (or almost nobody). It will probably go up.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:41 pm 
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I was going to say it's simply the new month and the donations have reset, although a start of 2.0 doesn't promise a great month. The grief is appreciated but entirely unwarranted. :P

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 1:01 am 
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Hi everyone,

This doesn`t make any sense because we will never know the exact level of the CAVCON itself.
One day it's at 4.3 and the next day it's down at 2.0.

Why don't they show us 2 numbers ? One for the CAVCON level itself and one for the monthly donation.
This would clarify everything.

Mouski


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 1:41 am 
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Mouski, they already do it. They show the final CAVCON level for the previous month, and the new level being built progressively for this month. I find it more logical this way.

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 Post subject: The cavcon
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 1:58 am 
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Hello ,
I must say that I agree with Mouski , it is very discouraging and a bit strange to change the system without a warning , It seems that no progress is done no matter how hard we try .
Why not simply ask for a monthly fee so we can be on this game without the Pendulum going down on our neck . At least we could feel that we have some control over our destiny and if we are not so many then get a smaller server, or give us two numbers as Mouski mentioned so we know where we stand because I do not really understand how it can go from 4.3 to 2 in one day ! I understand you changed the system but then tell us .
kindest regards
Christine


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 3:00 am 
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Hi Christine. If you go back a few pages in the topic you will see detailed discussion about the changes and how it all works. If you review that it will make sense to you. Mac Fife has an excellent summary. The change was discussed at length. Take a look :)

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 4:56 am 
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Ok, because we are dealing with "D'ni math", I have reproduced RAWA's chart below and expanded it.

If some of what I'm about to say seems overly simplified to some of you, my apologies. I'm trying to explain this for those who might not have an intuitive grasp on the complexities of the CAVCON meter. (Also, I should state this is how I understand the meter to work, if I have any of this wrong, I'm hoping RAWA or someone else from Cyan will correct any inaccuracies on my part.)

First off, it must be understood the CAVCON meter starts at "2.0" each month. The whole number and the decimel number each have meaning. The "2" symbolizes there is currently money in the reserve fund to cover any shortage in that month's donations. the ".0" is the amount of donations thus far recieved in the current month to cover expenses. (Therefore, if the reserve fund was ever completely empty, I believe the CAVCON would start "1.0". In that case, MO:ULa is very close to being shut down and the cavern closed.)

Next comes the "final"' and "in-progress" portion of the CAVCON. For the month of november we had a final score of "4.7." This means we not only covered the months expenses, but also exceeded it by 70%. These excess funds will be moved into the reserve fund. For the previous month of october, we however finished out with a "3.0". This means donations exactly covered expenses, and no money was needed to be withdrawen for the reserve fund, but neither was money added to it...We simply broke even.

Now say for instance, for the month of december, we only achieve a final CAVCON level of "2.7". This means only 70% of operational costs and expenses were met. The remaining 30% will have to be withdrawn from the reserve fund. In theory, if expenses remain the same, we have enough in the fund to cover the perhaps a month or two of similar "2.7" scores....but that will completely drain the reserve fund. On the other side of equation, three months of 4.3 scores means (in theory) we have 90% of a month's expenses should we ever need to use all or part of it for any shortages.

I want to take a moment to again apologize to those who feel I've have overly simplified this for them. I mean no offence, I hope those in the community who were confused now have a little bit more clarity on the system. Also, if I have any of this wrong or flaws in my logic, I hope RAWA or someone else will be kind enough to correct my conclusions in a kind and helpful manner.

Lastly, I do have a few lingering questions:

1. If we ever have more than a month's amounts of expenses in the reserve fund, would the CAVCON start at "3.0" until such a time as shortages reduced it to below this level? (Or, is contributing to the reserve fund the best we can hope for at the moment?)
2. Assuming starting at "3.0" is possible, going a step beyond this to start the month at "4.0" would mean there are 2-3 months of expenses in the reserve fund, correct?
3. After such point a point is reached, this would be the time a true "5.0" could be achived? (Which as one might imagine will be no easy matter.

I ask these questions not to discourage, but to fully reveal the complexity of the task and clarify the goal for the community...while also working within the limits which allows Cyan to avoid disclosing hard financial numbers. I further hope this post may in some small way lead to clearer communication between the various groups. Perhaps it will assist in developing an action plan for moving another step towards the improvement of MO:ULa for all the cavern's explorers.

(/salute)

*****
5.0 MO:ULa reserve fund is stable and Cyan is in a position that it can do regular minor updates or possible new content
4.9 (Monthly Expenses Met / Donations are in excess of expenses +90% )
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1 (Monthly Expenses Met / Donations are in excess of expenses +10%)
3.0 <--- monthly minimum goal (Donations = 100% of expenses)
2.9 (Donations = only 90% of expenses, remainder 10% came from reserve fund)
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1 (Donations = only cover 10% of monthly expenses, remainder 90% came from reserve fund)
2.0 <---Baseline statistic for each month
1.9 (Donations = only 90% of expenses, however reserve fund is empty, remainder 10% paid by Cyan)
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1 (Donations = only 10% of expenses, reserve fund is empty, remainder 90% paid by Cyan)
1.0 Reserve fund empty, Cyan is unable to make up the difference, MO:Ula to shut-down

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:45 am 
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Nev'yn, to my understanding, your interpretation is great...until we get to the part about the size of the reserve fund, itself.

I want to be clear here: as far as I know, we have no idea how big the reserve fund is. CAVCON does not reflect specifics on the size of the reserve fund.

Here's what CAVCON does tell us:
  • The relative ratio of donations to costs per month
    That is to say, we get an estimation, rounded to the closest tenth percent, of how much of the server cost has been (or is estimated to be) met by donations. "3" (which has no range) means donations have met (or are expected to meet) that month's server costs. This has no relation to the size of the reserve fund.
  • Whether the reserve fund is growing or shrinking
    Anything in the "2" range means funds are being (or are expected to be) taken out of the reserve to cover the server costs that were not met by that month's donations. Anything in the "4" range means extra donations are being (or are expected to be) added to the reserve fund for that month.
  • Whether or not the reserve fund has money in it
    Anything in the "1" range means the reserve fund is empty and the server expenses for that month have been (or will need to be) met by Cyan out-of-pocket.


As "1," "2," and "4" are ranges, the post-decimal half of those reflect that tenth percentile range. For "1" and "2", the higher that decimal, the closer we are to reaching CAVCON 3. For "4," it's just an approximate multiplier of how far we've exceeded the monthly costs. There doesn't seem to be any convention for if we exceed the cost by more than 90%, but since we haven't done that before (so far as I know), it hasn't really been an issue. Since "3" is merely an indicator that a particular month's expenses have been exactly met by donations, there is no range. You can't really have a range for "exactly."

CAVCON 5 is not something we will meet when the reserve fund meets a specific numerical value, but more appropriately a goal that will be determined by a number of factors, including Cyan's general well-being. As these are not all stable or quantifiable factors, if and when we reach CAVCON 5 will essentially be determined when "the powers that be" say so.

Now, on to the two numbers.

In the first post, we have the format as follows:
CAVCON: #.#
CAVCON Donation Meter: #.#


The first number is the one we've had since the start. That is our CAVCON number, and it is a reflection (using the chart above) of the donation-to-expense ratio for the previous month. Since we are in December now, the current CAVCON reflects November's donations. When we hit January, it will be updated for this month.

The second number is the Donation Meter, which is an estimation of how close we are to meeting the current month's expenses. This number is updated weekly and gives us a more up-to-date idea of where we are at the moment, but because the month's expenses aren't actually known until the end of the month, it can be somewhat less accurate than the final CAVCON number. Since this number only reflects donations for the current month, it will reset back to 2.0 at the beginning of every month. This is normal and it is nothing to worry about. At the beginning of the month, few to no donations have had the chance to come in yet, so the reserve fund is the only source of money to draw an estimate from. If, for some reason, it resets back to 1.0, that is when we want to start worrying.

Neither of these numbers reflects a solid long-term goal. It is a reflection of current and past donation statuses based on monthly expenses. Nothing more. There is no Big CAVCON Number(TM) that will slowly get bigger over time until we hit 5 because, as mentioned, we will not hit 5 until a complex array of unquantifiable criteria are met which get us to "Cyan can start adding patches and/or making new content now, yay!" While I'm sure getting 4.X months on a regular basis would probably help us get there (possibly much) faster, accounting is a complicated and very annoying thing to deal with.

I hope that helps!

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Last edited by Dalken Starbyne on Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 11:05 am 
Would it be possible to add an extra sticky post with all this information on it, because people are apparently not reading the bottom of the OP?


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 12:43 pm 
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Or just cut and paste it at the top of the OP, that way the info cannot be avoided without needing to scroll through it. I wouldn't mind doing that.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:10 pm 
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RAWA is listening. The OP has been updated with:

RAWA wrote:
For additional information on these new changes, please see: clarification #1, and clarification #2, and/or the summaries by Nev'yn and Dalken Starbyne.
(Those are linked in the OP.)

And we're at 2.4 as of the 13th. Not too bad.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:41 pm 
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Here is what I don't understand,
The system goes from 2.x to 3 (no decimal point) to 4.x
2 is under budget
3 is break even
4 is over budget

Shouldn't the month start at 3 because it made no profit and no loss?
Then as the month progresses we either build a reserve (going up through 4.x)
or we lose money (going down through 2.x)

But the one thing that should not happen is starting the month on 2.0
It just doesn't make sense to me.

Alien

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