Thanks Alahmnat, but I have also been looking at these numbers. I've actually taken all the numbers from RAWA and began extrapilating the raw data and growth in all areas. I'm not at my computer right now but I can add further to this report;
As I'm sure everyone is aware accounts have continued to trend upward and is unlikely to saturate anytime soon, although recent data may be suggesting a precursor effect. Negating the opening few months and a few random spikes and valleys, account growth has actually remained remarkably constant - hovering around 550 new accounts a week, generally 5??. Given that last week saw nearly 96,250 accounts, as long as this rate continues it won't be very long before Uru cracks 100,000; taking into account that very soon we will see the next report this may occur in six to seven weeks.
However in the last couple of months this growth has dropped below 500, last week's report showing exactly 400 new accounts. If this drop proves lasting of course this milestone will come later, but if this is the beginning of a downward trend in itself saturation may not be very far away. It would be imperative for Cyan to take an active interest in the Grey Hat developments as access to creating new ages will undoubtedly surge the growth of all areas,growth of new accounts will be greatly affected by this; those who have the creative design in other 3D modeling worlds who can and want to pass on their abilities into fan ages.
The rest of the graphs trend downward, and have done so the entire time of these data reports. The login graph is the more stable of this downward trend; negating the opening weeks and the random spikes and valleys the trend, while a little difficult to precisely measure the rate of declination, has experienced two slight hills in login activity, the second of which appears to have passed by now. The changing rate of login activity constantly peak and valley every week, but most of these changes seem to fit within a +/- 2000 range, that and the most recent activity shows a sort of stabilizing effect, meaning that the weekly logins are becoming a more constant number. It's clear that given the hills in the graph this is more a seasonal phenomenon and while it is expected that the next hill of login activity will occur in early-mid next year, the numbers do continue to drop, though at a slower rate.
Of all the areas the that will be affected by the Grey Hat developments, login activity will be one of the most affected; more explorers will be compelled to log in again and explore new ages with friends as well as other new things from the Fun House.
The age visits further implicates the downward trend as it is more an exaggeration of the login graph, which is to be expected given that the former is very much linked with the latter. The age visits graph display a similar trend to the logins amplified many times, the slight hills of the logins represent the chaotic peaks in the age visits. The rate of age visits also as chaotic as the rate of login graph, again amplified in magnitude. Very nearly all of the rate of age visits fit within the +/- 20,000 range, which is concurrent to Alahmnat's claim of the rate of age visits per login as being approximately 10. Seeing as this graph is very much like the login graph, age visits are also a seasonal progression and that they trend downward, the only possible difference between each of these graphs is that unlike the logins, age visits appear to remain mostly erratic in recent times. It is difficult to determine if and when age visits will stabilize.
There is no doubt in my mind that the Grey Hats development will cause age visits to surge the most of all of these areas; as long as new ages are regularly produced by the age writers the community at large will make of it a duty to explore every one of these, causing the age visit tally to upsurge a great deal and remain there for a long time.
Finally, unique visitors also seems to follow the trends of the logins and age visits, although due to a lack of understanding of the term 'Unique Visitors' I don't understand why. I've so far operated under the assumption that unique visitors means the number of different avatars entering Uru every week, please clarify me if I'm wrong. Much like the other two graphs the unique visitors rise and fall seasonally and that the rate of unique visitors is just as erratic. Once again, with the exception of a huge peak and subsequent valley in the period of Weeks 61 and 62 - I haven't yet jotted down the dates of each of the weeks - most of the rate of unique visitors fall within the +/- 200 range, using this information we can expand Alahmnat's claim into something like this; each unique visitor logs in approximately 10 times and visits an age roughly 100 times a week. Also once again the rise and fall of the graph is seasonal as the linear number continues to trend downward.
The Grey Hats development will encourage more unique visitors to return to the cavern and explore the new ages, the unique visitors will be similarly affected in kind to the logins and accounts.
Here's what I have so far.
_________________ Owner and creator of JMJ Studios D'ni Bevin Chris Sifniotis KI = 433655 Skydiver Chris = 9316160
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