CAVCON Meter

Mac_Fife · **Posted:** Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:19 pm

OK, I re-read RAWA's clarification #1 and I take back my comments: Lyrositor is right - starting a month at CAVCON 2.x does mean that there's enough in reserve to cover expenses if donations do not.

That does make for some interesting re-interpretation of some recent data though. The 1.2 at the beginning of July didn't necessarily mean that the reserve was empty (see Malfhok's post) but only that there wouldn't be enough to cover expenses if donations didn't. In fact the reserve could have been empty or it could have had as much as 0.9 of a month in it - we don't know. So, with the last couple of "4+" months, we could have anywhere between 1 and 2 months in the reserve as we sit now. Not quite as clear cut as we may have thought.

Charura · **Joined:** Wed Oct 14, 2009 4:14 pm **Posts:** 1773

Mac_Fife wrote:

Not quite as clear cut as we may have thought.

So my speculation theory is still valid...Just a joke..lol..Pease don't get mad at this comment.

RAWA · **Posted:** Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:21 pm

Mac_Fife wrote:

Lyrositor is right - starting a month at CAVCON 2.x does mean that there's enough in reserve to cover expenses if donations do not.

Quote:

The 1.2 at the beginning of July didn't necessarily mean that the reserve was empty (see Malfhok's post) but only that there wouldn't be enough to cover expenses if donations didn't.

Correct. The meter gives an estimate (because final expenses for the month are not known in advance) for the current month based on the reserve fund + donations received to that point (because we don't want to guess at what donations might or might not come in between now and the end of the month).

So a 2.0 at the beginning of the month means there are enough donations in reserve to cover the current month's estimated expenses. A 1.0 at the beginning of the month means that donations in reserve will not cover the current month's estimated expenses. (At the beginning of the month, there are no donations to factor in, it's all based on the reserve from previous months' donations.)

Further analysis:
On 7/10 we were at 1.2, which means we had received ~20% of estimated expenses so far in July, but the first digit was still "1", which means that reserves + donations were still not enough to cover July's estimated expenses. So we know that the reserve was at something lower than 80% of one month's expenses when July began. The next week we jumped to 4.2, so we can't be more specific than that: we were somewhere below 80% of one month's expenses in reserve at the start of July.

Given that the CAVCON meter is only intended to give a general idea of the health of donation levels, and not specific numbers, that seems a reasonable margin of error.

Speculate away.

:)

RAWA

Nev'yn · **Posted:** Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:45 pm

Maybe we can just replace the former Lake Light Level Meter with the Cavcon Analysis Meter? :lol:

Mac_Fife · **Posted:** Fri Oct 04, 2013 6:25 pm

It didn't take long for the positive reaction to the July CAVCON 1 report to wear off, did it? Despite events celebrating Myst's 20th anniversary during the month, we didn't even scrape up a 3.0 for September, finishing on 2.4 (albeit estimated for now)

.

The 2.3 with a week or so to go was probably an indication of how things were likely to turn out. I sort of expected that to happen though - I can guess that a few folks pushed the boat out a bit in July/August to help out and are now a bit "tapped out" as far as donations are concerned. That said, while we can't expect 4.9s every month, getting to 3.0 ought not to be too hard, else all the benefit of the July and August generosity just gets wasted.

It's a pity that RAWA editing the top posts doesn't flag the thread up as being refreshed - you need to be watching for edits or paying attention to the in-game logon message.

Charura · **Joined:** Wed Oct 14, 2009 4:14 pm **Posts:** 1773

I didn't donate last month as I saw it as a 'push-pull effect' (looking at my checkbook) as Mac_Fife explained..I do hope this month will be a good donation month..

Not that it matters, or is really relevant, the time that Cyan puts into this 're-birth' is enough for me to try to contribute as they do..

Hey...the doors are still open for us to come in and help, after all

Chuckles58 · **Posted:** Sun Oct 06, 2013 5:11 am

Watching the CAVCON meter go up and down reminds me of the Lake Light meter, and our direction to keep it consistent. It would be great if we could just top 3.0 each month (like 4.1 or 4.2), rather than the spikes and dips. Too bad our pellet dropping doesn't help, but hitting the donation button every month or two may be the best some can do, and others less frequently.

Acorn1 · **Joined:** Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:46 pm **Posts:** 985

Mac_Fife wrote:

It's a pity that RAWA editing the top posts doesn't flag the thread up as being refreshed - you need to be watching for edits or paying attention to the in-game logon message.

Agreed - and I'd been used to getting the good or bad news rather later into the month, so hadn't looked for the update this time.

It's helpful if we're now going to get the figures a bit earlier - I assume "estimated" means the accountant hasn't signed it off yet, but this way, it gives us longer to react, and act. Thanks to RAWA for this improvement.

Mac_Fife · **Posted:** Sun Oct 06, 2013 6:14 pm

RAWA usually posts his updates sometime between Thursday/Friday (UK time) - Because I've been getting a bit obsessive about tracking the numbers I've got into the habit of checking for an update after I log on to my PC on a Friday evening.

I think Chuckles58's analogy with the lake light meter is a very good one - someone (might have been RAWA, might have been JWPlatt) once remarked "Once you understand CAVCON, you'll understand pellets". Or something like that. Anyway, I'd tend to agree that a steady level of just breaking 3.0 is going to be better than the "boom or bust" peaks and troughs we've had lately. Graphically, this is what the CAVCON history (Rastafarian edition) looks like:

I wonder if now is a good time to ask Cyan about the "monthly email donation reminder" suggestion again?

Nev'yn · **Posted:** Sun Oct 06, 2013 6:51 pm

Actually, when I went to make my contribution via paypal this month, you can now set up recurring donations.....Not sure when they started this new function, though.

Mac_Fife · **Posted:** Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:52 pm

Yes, that's a big improvement, provided that you're actually able to donate every month. But I guess a few folks would appreciate a reminder to consider donating each month without the obligation to actually do so if it's too much of a stretch that month.

RAWA · **Posted:** Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:36 am

Acorn1 wrote:

I assume "estimated" means the accountant hasn't signed it off yet, but this way, it gives us longer to react, and act. Thanks to RAWA for this improvement.

"Estimated" means that the donations for the month just ended (September) are in, but the cavcon number listed is based on estimated expenses for that month.

The "Final" number usually comes about a week into the next month (October), after all of that month's (September's) actual expenses have been received and figured.

Mac_Fife · **Posted:** Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:42 pm

Ah! 2.7 final for September. That's a good bit better than the 2.4 estimated, and not quite so worrying.

KathAveara · **Posted:** Tue Oct 08, 2013 11:17 pm

But still worrying

TOOO · **Posted:** Tue Oct 08, 2013 11:19 pm

We Uru fans are really living on the edge, aren't we?

CAVCON Meter

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