CAVCON Meter

Mac_Fife · **Posted:** Fri Feb 26, 2010 7:32 pm

It's great to see that information, so thank's for posting it! I hope you'll keep us updated on it, but I guess weekly updates might be too much to ask for.

Probably the important metric is the CAVCON status - we don't really want to see that one drop.

The others are just fun to play with:
As someone else posted, we have to apply a bit of interpretation with the logins per week: Unless that's expressly stated as unique logins i.e. different accounts, then you have to consider people who login at 2 or 3 different times of the day or people hitting CTDs, etc., so 48,000 logins may mean anything between 1,500 and 5,000 different players per day, which is a pretty big uncertainty.

I'm a bit confused by the total accounts figure: If there are 14,000 accounts and each account creates only one avatar then, given that each avatar initially goes into one of the DRC hoods, there should be 700 hoods. But many people have more than one avatar: Marein's poll is probably the best metric we have available and suggests an average of 2 avatars per account, which should drive the 'hood count to nearer 1400. But checking in-game just now, there are less than 600

So, even with one avatar per person, 2,000 accounts have signed up, but never created an avatar, and chances are that it's more likely to be 4,000 accounts with no avatar

. So is something wrong here? Probably not really. I'm guessing that during the pandemonium of the first week, many people will have requested accounts using multiple email addresses in an attempt to get the download link, so that might well account for the disparity.

What you can't argue with is the 3,500 new accounts in the past week

I can't really say I expect that kind of growth to keep up, but using RAWA's scale, we'd need to go to CAVCON 5 to fund another upgrade, so a reasonable proportion of these new players had better be hitting that "Donate" button!

Kaylar · **Posted:** Fri Feb 26, 2010 7:48 pm

kiyoshigawa wrote:

Teknobubba wrote:

Malfhok wrote:

I wonder, should we be starting a fundraising (or spike-creation) ideas thread?

Like a bake sale, maybe? Cavern Cookies. Ask for them by name!

Made with the freshest lake water!

As long as we're using lake water, we should probably be making lemonade for a lemonade stand!

Lehm · **Joined:** Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:56 am **Posts:** 84

Here's an idea. Would it be possible to put this info in the launcher. So that everyone sees it and not just those that read the forums. Just a reminder that what they're playing costs money.

Robert The Rebuilder · **Posted:** Fri Feb 26, 2010 7:59 pm

Lehm wrote:

Here's an idea. Would it be possible to put this info in the launcher. So that everyone sees it and not just those that read the forums. Just a reminder that what they're playing costs money.

Maybe... if we ever dip down to CAVCON 2 :shock:

Kalypso · **Joined:** Thu Aug 16, 2007 9:33 pm **Posts:** 68

Lehm wrote:

Here's an idea. Would it be possible to put this info in the launcher. So that everyone sees it and not just those that read the forums.

The GoMe is making sure that this news is spreading on the internet:
We have this news on our front page: http://www.guildofmessengers.com/
On facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Dni/Guild ... 429?ref=ts
On Twitter: https://twitter.com/GoMessengers
And in french: http://www.guildofmessengers.com/fr/con ... es-sur-uru

Tai'lahr · **Posted:** Fri Feb 26, 2010 8:43 pm

I see some great ideas being tossed around for how we can use this data.

Robert The Rebuilder wrote:

I wonder if we could produce a 'spike' similar to Tai'lahr's pellet points blitz experiment performed in February 2008?

Good lord, I can't believe you dragged up that old thing.

But, since you did... Yes, it would be great if someone would create a graph like the ones Erik made for the pellet drops. The visual could inspire lots of great ideas.

Mac_Fife wrote:

If there are 14,000 accounts and each account creates only one avatar then, given that each avatar initially goes into one of the DRC hoods, there should be 700 hoods. <snip> But checking in-game just now, there are less than 600

Maybe it wouldn't affect the numbers that much, but you've got to take into account that when people leave a DRC hood before another one is created, those empty spots are filled before a new one is created.

Mac_Fife · **Posted:** Fri Feb 26, 2010 9:04 pm

Tai'lahr wrote:

Maybe it wouldn't affect the numbers that much, but you've got to take into account that when people leave a DRC hood before another one is created, those empty spots are filled before a new one is created.

Actually Tai', they're not. That might happen in the case of someone leaving the most recent DRC hood before it reaches is 20 avatar max. (I haven't checked that), but other hoods have retained the empty slots and have less that 20 members.

EDIT: I just re-read your post and realised that's really what you were saying :oops:

. But I think the number of occasions where that is possible are probably very small, since the figures suggest there's a new account being created every three minutes, which means you've got less than an hour tops to create the avvie and get it invited into another hood.

Erik · **Posted:** Fri Feb 26, 2010 9:20 pm

Tai'lahr, those graphs on the DRC website are actually from the DRC itself. I made graphs for the next months because once again the DRC neglected things.

I think most of them are spread over my blog, but I couldn't find them all back. :oops:

I should put them somewhere together and make graphs for the new data too. (I did find this one of all the data)

And yes, a graph of the number of accounts would be nice too!

JWPlatt · **Posted:** Fri Feb 26, 2010 9:38 pm

Thanks RAWA!

Some folks see Cyan as finally opening up about things - "transparent," as it were. But I think Cyan has (almost) always just done what made the most sense at the time. It's a company of very bright, wise and fun people. When you are running a business and making deals with other companies that affect you, your company, your employees, and your employee's families, it's bad form to just open up all that for public examination. But when the deal is *with* the public, then one is simply open with the company you are keeping. So it's not a new behavior or a new commitment to honor the fanbase. The honor has always been there. It's just a new situation and the deal, finally, is with us.

Ok, on with the current flow of this thread:

Some have suggested a thermometer-like donation bar with real dollar values. I can't say I'd expect Cyan to open up even more with something like that, especially when the implied "beg" is so blatant (not generally the thing "shy" companies like to do). And Mr. Laxman would probably be against using tangible, understandable numbers to motivate people. There might be spikes and valleys induced by such not-vague feedback which could damage the system. But then, I haven't seen Mr. Laxman around lately. Ha!

The really the big number missing is concurrency. That's what drives the server load and expected costs to support a quantity of accounts. People might be using their accounts, but not donating. Or they might be donating but not using their accounts. Some with multiple computers might use more than one account concurrently, but that's not a big percentage. But without concurrency in the mix, it's difficult to judge if too little or too much is being spent to serve the load.

Maybe CAVCON needs a dot-index (CAVCON x.<index>) that indicates funding versus concurrency, accounts and development.

If there were a lot of funding, but insufficient servers for the load, that would be a bad (low) number. This would be someone with a very expensive one-speed bicycle trying to peddle up a cliff and going very slowly. Maybe 0.
If there were insufficient funding for too many servers and little load, that would also be bad, but a very high number. This would be someone on an old rusty pair of skates (old enough to have lost the skate key) skating down the same cliff at high speed towards a rather fatal stop. Maybe 100 - as in, percentage of the chance of death at the bottom.
But if funding, accounts and concurrency, plus development options were all at the right mix like a finely tuned carburetor, a pretty nice car could be humming along that roadmap to open source while having enough oompf to take on the curves, hills, and valleys. That number would be right in he middle. Maybe 50.

Sounds a lot like COAS, but with numbers, and it doesn't normalize itself without competent intervention.

And it would be nice to see real concurrency numbers. Mr. Laxman notwithstanding. :wink:

RAWA · **Posted:** Fri Feb 26, 2010 10:42 pm

Christian Walther wrote:

I apologize if my comment came across a bit snarkier than intended. Let me make it clear that I am a very happy one of 14000 and I fully support your first step.

I'm glad. I was just amused by the number of times it is repeated that our plans haven't changed that we're taking steps in that direction, MO:ULagain is the first step, etc., and it only lasts for about a week before the implication is made that we've changed our plans. :)

Quote:

I'm glad to hear that the list wasn’t an official Cyan priority list, and I’m glad to hear that you didn’t mean “bug fixes” or “incorporating fan created content” as goals that would be reached by Cyan alone independently of the “open source” train.

Again, it is my understanding that "incorporating fan created content" is dependent on parts of the "open source" plan, so to me saying one is implying the other.

Hope that helps,

RAWA

Maratanos · **Posted:** Fri Feb 26, 2010 10:44 pm

I love the idea represented by this thread, however, memory asks me to make one request.

I remember the C.O. meter, which was also a good idea, but there was a slight problem. Toward the end of the lifespan of MOUL, the meter stopped getting updated rather than having its value lowered. I would like this to not happen with your new fancy meter here. It would be very good to know if things are becoming slowly less satisfactory.

I should mention that this request is almost certainly unnecessary because it seems to me that the most likely reason the C.O. meter got ignored rather than having its value drop was because of legal complications involving the implied publication of Cyan's relationship with GameTap. Companies don't like information like that getting out ahead of official announcements, and so the C.O. meter ended up getting the shaft.

I hope that this will not happen with MOULa and I suspect that it will not simply because there is no such corporate relationship placing stress on Cyan's natural tendency to be relatively free with any information that they actually have.

RAWA · **Posted:** Fri Feb 26, 2010 11:08 pm

JWPlatt wrote:

Some folks see Cyan as finally opening up about things - "transparent," as it were. But I think Cyan has (almost) always just done what made the most sense at the time. It's a company of very bright, wise and fun people. When you are running a business and making deals with other companies that affect you, your company, your employees, and your employee's families, it's bad form to just open up all that for public examination. But when the deal is *with* the public, then one is simply open with the company you are keeping. So it's not a new behavior or a new commitment to honor the fanbase. The honor has always been there. It's just a new situation and the deal, finally, is with us.

Well said. Thanks for understanding.

Quote:

And Mr. Laxman would probably be against using tangible, understandable numbers to motivate people. There might be spikes and valleys induced by such not-vague feedback which could damage the system.

Yes, the similarities of this to the lake project has not been lost on me. And I agree: artificial spikes can be detrimental to catastrophic in both scenarios. Which is why running out and telling everyone in sight about MO:ULagain right now may not be the best thing for it. Very similar to when the D'mala shard opened, MO:ULagain's current state will be a turn off to those who are not looking at it for its future potential. Some may come in, see the bugs, see that there's no new content, and go away forever.

Better, IMO, to grow gradually with people who do see the potential and are willing to put up with it in its current state.That's not to say don't invite anyone, just make sure they understand what MO:ULagain currently is and what it is not (yet). And be clear that if it's not their cup of tea right now with it's limitations, but they like the overall concept that they're perfectly justified to follow my standard advice of going and finding something that they do enjoy in the meantime.

Quote:

The really the big number missing is concurrency.

This was one of the stats we discussed, but since I have to rely on others (mainly Chogon) to get me the stats each week, I don't want to keep pestering him for more and different kinds of data (e.g. volunteering him for more work when he already has enough to do). So more stats might be added at some point, but I make no promises. :)

vidkid7 · **Posted:** Sat Feb 27, 2010 12:25 am

So, if we can push this thing all the way to CAVCON 5 for a prolonged period, can we get that "Bevin" vs "Neighborhood" thing fixed? :wink:

Crazyraider312 · **Joined:** Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:23 am **Posts:** 196

I have a fun suggestion! I don't know how hard this would be to set up, but I'm sure it could be done. At the Cyan offices, somewhere, have a switch that will update the CAVCON status on the website, automatically. Think of what fun you could have! *flick*CAVCON 1 *flick*CAVCON 2 *flick*CAVCON 3 *flick*CAVCON 4 *flick*CAVCON 5 *flick*CAVCON 1*flick*CAVCON 5 *flick*CAVCON 5 *flick*CAVCON 1 *flick*CAVCON 5 (and so on and so forth, in somewhat rapid succession. say, you could have a 5-setting switch (I actually do not know if they make those), or a bank of 5 regular on-off switches, one for each number. When a number's switch is turned on, it becomes active on the site (you'd need a graphic display on the site). Only problem is if people turn 2 on at once, which could really confuse people (instead of sending them on a wild roller-coaster ride as in what I described above)). Another advantage to this is that you can have CAVCON light shows. XD

Nighthawk · **Posted:** Sat Feb 27, 2010 6:11 am

Let's spank this pig up to CAVCON 5!

:wink:

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