While I can't speak to 1, 2 is fallacious, and 3 is comparatively moot.
Yes, Plasma runs on DirectX. However, Myst V was ported to Mac, and runs quite smashingly, so apparently the engine either relies on DirectX as little as possible, or is written in an efficient manner so that OpenGL can be substituted without requiring an entire engine reconstruction. Given how many other DirectX games have also been ported to the Mac (Black & White, Homeworld 2, etc.), I'd say that doesn't preclude the game from making it to the Mac OS.
GameTap is a potential sticking point, but not one I think is capable of actually preventing this from happening. GameTap isn't available in most of the countries people will be playing Live from as it is, so an out-of-GameTap method of connecting to the game must be in place (and given that the beta doesn't require a GameTap account according to Cyan, it must therefore also already be working). I would imagine Mac users would be able to access the game just like anyone outside of GameTap's existing availability "zone"... download a client, create an account (again, if Live is available internationally, a system for this must be in place by the time it launches), and log in.
As far as point 1 is concerned, I seriously doubt that Cyan would put themselves in the same position as the one they were placed in by Havok last time around. While I can't speak with any authority on the status of PhysX's cross-platfom compatibility, I can say that the move by Apple to the Intel x86 architecture ought to presumably make porting the physics engine to at least the Intel-based Macs a likelihood, else I'm pretty sure Cyan would have kept looking. I know a lot of Mac users (myself included) still have a PowerPC-based machine, but as with OS 9 before and the move to IBM's PowerPC chips before that, eventually, support for the PowerPC will dry up completely, and I wouldn't be surprised if Ageia doesn't port to it.
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