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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:19 pm 
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Shorah, fellow explorers!

As we are strong believers in the principles of science, exploration, and rational discovery, characteristics which have always graced both the D'ni and the Myst games, we hereby present to you our group's preliminary report on the progress of lighting the lake.

Four weeks ago, the DRC released the age of Er'Cana to explorers, along with an exciting Ki-Mail explaining that the pellets which could be manufactured in this age could be used to raise the light levels of the algea in the cavern's lake. Explorers flocked to Er'Cana and began manufacturing pellets like rabbits, posting their best recipes and dizzyingly climbing scores to the forums. Fortunately, in addition to private KI scores, the DRC had provided explorers with a device to provide feedback and allow us to measure our collective progress:

[spoiler]Image[/spoiler]

At first, this device displayed only a number vacilating between 0 and 1. After four weeks of tireless explorer effort and millions of pellet points earned, the device, as of yesterday, displays our progress thusly:

[spoiler]Image[/spoiler]

We can therefore measure explorer progress to date via the following graph:

[spoiler]Image[/spoiler]

If we assume that the vacillation between 0 and 1 represents an intermediary state between these two values, we can further assume that the number of pellets so far deposited has not been enough to cause the machine to consistently read a 1. Ergo, we can suppose that at least two months of work must be necessary to move the machine to a full "1" reading. Another two months would then be required to cause the machine to reach a state of vacillating between 1 and 2, and so on.

Furthermore, as there appears to be room for four digits on the device's no-doubt impeachably accurate digital readout, the maximum value the machine measures must logically be 9,999.

From these premises, it's very easy to calculate the minimum amount of time it will take for the lake to be fully restored:

[spoiler]Image[/spoiler]

1,666.5 years may seem like a lot of time to some, but on the vast epic timeframe of the D'ni civilization, this is a drop in the bucket. The DRC seems to appreciate this perhaps better than impatient explorers:

The DRC wrote:
"Be aware that this process will likely take many months."


Addendum: some have noted that as the KI coordinates for the Uran silo (where pellets are deposited) show that its elevation is actually _beneath_ the level of the lake, and as no pumps can be audibly heard, the pellets must actually be going into an unconnected reservoir of water which could not possibly be affecting the lake at all. These would-be pundits have further suggested that the whole endeavour (and indeed the entire age of Er'cana itself) was devised by a particularly clever D'ni King to keep his restful populace at bay. "Oh dear, the lake's getting dark again!" he would announce after a particularly unhappy sit-in, "Back to pellet duty, everyone!" The populace would happily produce pellets every day, believing themselves to be "helping," until the King at his leisure would announce that the lake was "restored" (at least till the next crisis rolled around). Unfortunately, when the lake-o-meter was invented by a particularly clever member of the Guild of Weights and Measures, the entire plan was ruined, as the populace now had clear evidence that their production of pellets was in fact not correlated with the lake light levels at all. Thus was the king lynched and a new leader installed, who promptly had the Er'cana book hidden in the Watcher's Pub which conveniently had been recently renovated to remove its entrance.

However, as this is merely unfounded speculation it should not be considered part of our official report.

Sincerely,

D'ni Investigators, Scientists, And Soundly Thorough Experimental Researchers.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:22 pm 
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:P Very good!


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:30 pm 
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:35 pm 
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While the maximum value possible on the lake meter appears to be 9999, that does not mean we can assume 9999 means "fully restored" For all we know, "fully restored" could be a mere 1000 on the meter. Or perhaps they put extra digits there "just because we can"

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:42 pm 
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Herohtar, you raise an interesting point, but I stand behind my theory. If, however, you are interested in a public wager, I will gladly agree to meet you at the docks in the year 2175 when the readout will show 1000. If at that time the lake is lit, I shall be happy to make a $500 contribution to the charity of your choice.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:47 pm 
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Yes, we are amused. :D

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:01 am 
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DrTerentRistle wrote:
Herohtar, you raise an interesting point, but I stand behind my theory. If, however, you are interested in a public wager, I will gladly agree to meet you at the docks in the year 2175 when the readout will show 1000. If at that time the lake is lit, I shall be happy to make a $500 contribution to the charity of your choice.


Sounds good. I accept.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:01 am 
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D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R

Tee-hee... :wink:

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:29 am 
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This is a great thread, in the tradition of Swift's A Modest Proposal. But all joking aside, this is exactly why I'm not participating in this farce.

The lake lighting was to me perhaps the most exciting storyline that was promised with MOUL, and yet, I can't bring myself to log in to grind my way through the boring, boring, boring cooking process, for an indeterminate or perhaps, as suggested, infinite period, all for some unknown result, which will likely occur regardless of my personal input anyway.

I'm a fan, but seriously, this is still a game, right?

And while it likely will not take a hundred or more years to light the lake, and there may well be a system put in place by Cyan, to the player there is no interactivity or practical feedback on explorers' actions whatsoever.

And when the lake it lit, and those who had time to burn cooking pellets are rewarded, I'm just going to get even more upset.

Cyan isn't my parents, and cooking pellets is not the same as eating my carrots. Just telling us that "it's good for you" isn't going to fly.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 1:47 am 
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Actually... you might be making a mistake in your assumption that the lake lighting increases linearly...

I mean... it might totally be exponential growth, charklon.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 3:15 am 
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Quick question, did anyone think to check and see if the machine was turned on completely? Or maybe the machine is malfunctioning and not properly reporting the level of light emitted by the lake?

Just my 2 cents worth.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 4:49 am 
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This is why I promptly gave up baking pellets.

It's just like the Great Zero calibration.

Nothing we do actually makes any difference, no matter how hard we toil. The lake will start to illuminate regardless of our efforts when Cyan is ready for it to happen... just like the Great Zero getting turned on.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:10 am 
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/smile

I think we're going to find that the machine in the docks hasn't been calibrated correctly, and one day (during one of the episodes - /yawn) someone's going to come along and suddenly the digits on the front are going to jump up.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 6:53 am 
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nebodin wrote:
Nothing we do actually makes any difference, no matter how hard we toil. The lake will start to illuminate regardless of our efforts when Cyan is ready for it to happen... just like the Great Zero getting turned on.

I assume you have some convincing proof of this, given that Greydragon has unambiguously stated the opposite?


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 7:08 am 
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I think the digit represents not the per cent of restored algae, but it represents the difference of the brightness in an unit like candela, lumen or lux. So it could be fully restored at a value of 5 or 10. We could ask Laxman in the next episode.

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