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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2010 11:08 pm 
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Obduction Backer

Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 5:28 am
Posts: 2266
This is exciting, but I think it's too early to speculate how many we'll have around longer than a week, or a month, or a couple of months. We'll just have to see.

I think it's great - wonderful actually. We're in MMO Uru again.

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mszv, amarez in Uru, other online games, never use mszv anymore, would like to change it
Blog - http://www.amarez.com, Twitter - http://www.twitter.com/amareze


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2010 11:23 pm 
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Obduction Backer

Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2006 1:06 am
Posts: 101
Location: Cary, NC
It makes me smile that the complaint about a long post had the entirety of the long post quoted within itself. ;)

One thing that's kind of neat, game dev-wise, is that we *have* Uru, and we're all tabula rasa here on moving forward. In a sense, a lot of those dev costs for Uru's infrastructure and initial content are 'paid,' and we go from here, as a community working with Cyan. That's pretty exciting!

For me, I am just so glad to be able to wander around again in the City and all of the Ages, getting the pings of connection through the lattice from my buddies and my neighbors in the hood. It's soothing and comforting, and it didn't really hit me until I was back exploring exactly how much I missed it.

Anyway.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2010 1:15 pm 
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Obduction Backer

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:45 am
Posts: 577
Location: Nijmegen, the Netherlands
I think it's about time to post some results from my poll.

70 people voted (so far) and the average number of avatars per voter is exactly 2 (which is the same number that I guessed earlier. Me so smart). So theoretically, we divide the number of avatars by 2 to find the approximate amount of players in Uru.

So how do we find the amount of avatars? Two ways have been suggested; either multiply the amount of DRC hoods (313) by the amount of people in each DRC hood (20) or take the highest KI number (1383420) and divide it by the average distance between KI numbers (280). These two methods yield numbers of 6260 and 4941, respectively.

I personally prefer the first method, because the distance between KI numbers (used in the second method) is ever-changing. KI numbers are taken from the same pool as all other vault object IDs (which range from Ages to pieces of clothing). As more players enter the game, vault objects are created at increasingly higher rates. Thus, the average distance between all KI numbers changes as time goes on, and is very hard to estimate at any point (you can get the average between the latest so many KI numbers pretty easily, but not the average distance between all KI numbers, which is what we need). The first method, in contrast, is very constant as the amount of people in each DRC hood stays the same (and even if it is at some point changed, it won't be hard to figure out the new calculation). It has its own problems (for example when someone leaves a DRC hood before it is full and their place is taken by another new player, in effect 21 people fit into the hood), but I still prefer it.

So! This brings our formula for the amount of Uru players to:

Code:
players = DRC * PPH / APP

Where DRC is the number of the latest DRC hood, PPH is Players Per Hood and APP is Avatars Per Player

AKA:

Code:
players = DRC * 20 / 2

Or:

Code:
players = DRC * 10

So, we simply need to add a zero to the end of the newest DRC hood number to get the approximate amount of players in the game. Currently, that gives a total of 3130 players.

But wait, didn't we get information from Cyan on 3000 or even as much as 5000 players, only a few days after the reopening of the cavern?

Yes, but these were account registration numbers; not players or avatars. Because of the difficulty of accessing the game in the first days, many people probably gave up after, after having created an account, but without ever having created a single avatar. This could be an explanation of why Cyan's numbers are higher than reality seems to be. Another factor could be that the early days saw an incredible surge in account registrations, but many people waited a few days to actually start creating avatars, hence the number of players only now starts to pick up on the number of registrations.

Anyway, 3130 is certainly not a bad number! Let's keep making sure those new people feel welcome in the city! :)


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