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Obduction Backer |
Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:45 am Posts: 577 Location: Nijmegen, the Netherlands
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I think it's about time to post some results from my poll.
70 people voted (so far) and the average number of avatars per voter is exactly 2 (which is the same number that I guessed earlier. Me so smart). So theoretically, we divide the number of avatars by 2 to find the approximate amount of players in Uru.
So how do we find the amount of avatars? Two ways have been suggested; either multiply the amount of DRC hoods (313) by the amount of people in each DRC hood (20) or take the highest KI number (1383420) and divide it by the average distance between KI numbers (280). These two methods yield numbers of 6260 and 4941, respectively.
I personally prefer the first method, because the distance between KI numbers (used in the second method) is ever-changing. KI numbers are taken from the same pool as all other vault object IDs (which range from Ages to pieces of clothing). As more players enter the game, vault objects are created at increasingly higher rates. Thus, the average distance between all KI numbers changes as time goes on, and is very hard to estimate at any point (you can get the average between the latest so many KI numbers pretty easily, but not the average distance between all KI numbers, which is what we need). The first method, in contrast, is very constant as the amount of people in each DRC hood stays the same (and even if it is at some point changed, it won't be hard to figure out the new calculation). It has its own problems (for example when someone leaves a DRC hood before it is full and their place is taken by another new player, in effect 21 people fit into the hood), but I still prefer it.
So! This brings our formula for the amount of Uru players to:
Code: players = DRC * PPH / APP Where DRC is the number of the latest DRC hood, PPH is Players Per Hood and APP is Avatars Per Player
AKA:
Code: players = DRC * 20 / 2 Or:
Code: players = DRC * 10
So, we simply need to add a zero to the end of the newest DRC hood number to get the approximate amount of players in the game. Currently, that gives a total of 3130 players.
But wait, didn't we get information from Cyan on 3000 or even as much as 5000 players, only a few days after the reopening of the cavern?
Yes, but these were account registration numbers; not players or avatars. Because of the difficulty of accessing the game in the first days, many people probably gave up after, after having created an account, but without ever having created a single avatar. This could be an explanation of why Cyan's numbers are higher than reality seems to be. Another factor could be that the early days saw an incredible surge in account registrations, but many people waited a few days to actually start creating avatars, hence the number of players only now starts to pick up on the number of registrations.
Anyway, 3130 is certainly not a bad number! Let's keep making sure those new people feel welcome in the city! 
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