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PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 3:31 pm 
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Well, since Prologue ran for three months, it seems reasonable that over the course of that three months it could have climbed from 10,000 in the first month to 20,000, then 30,000, to a final peak of 40,000 accounts at the day of closing.

That'd make both Rand and the analyst correct - at different times during the run of Prologue.

Anyway, like everyone else, I've got to say, thanks, RAWA, for keeping us up to date - and I hope the number of player accounts continues to rise. :)


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 5:56 pm 
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matt, it wasn't regular as people were let on in waves. The biggest single tranche of players was the "clerical error" spike on Monday 5th January 2004, FWIW.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 11:10 am 
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Still at CAVCON 4. Still no login data, though that was expected.

Interesting, though, that this seems to be for a six day period (6/2/10 - 6/8/10). Unless RAWA just made a mistake in the date. Guess we'll know eventually.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 12:15 pm 
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only 541 new accounts, this week. =/ (down from 637 last week)

EDIT: So I was curious, perhaps, in retrospect, I shouldn't've been...

From the first two CAVCON datasets we had... to the most recent, at the bottom. =/

17/02/2010 - 24/02/2010: 3597 new accounts
24/02/2010 - 03/03/2010: 2818 new accounts
03/03/2010 - 10/03/2010: 1733 new accounts
10/03/2010 - 17/03/2010: 1156 new accounts
17/03/2010 - 24/03/2010: 1118 new accounts
24/03/2010 - 31/03/2010: 949 new accounts
31/03/2010 - 07/04/2010: 1115 new accounts
07/04/2010 - 14/04/2010: 971 new accounts
14/04/2010 - 21/04/2010: 929 new accounts
21/04/2010 - 28/04/2010: 850 new accounts
28/04/2010 - 05/05/2010: 676 new accounts
05/05/2010 - 12/05/2010: 365 new accounts
12/05/2010 - 19/05/2010: 734 new accounts
19/05/2010 - 26/06/2010: 710 new accounts
26/05/2010 - 02/06/2010: 637 new accounts
02/06/2010 - 09/06/2010: 541 new accounts
09/06/2010 - 16/06/2010: 623 new accounts
16/06/2010 - 23/06/2010: 576 new accounts
23/06/2010 - 30/06/2010: 485 new accounts
30/06/2010 - 07/07/2010: 538 new accounts
07/07/2010 - 14/07/2010: 526 new accounts
14/07/2010 - 21/07/2010: 556 new accounts
21/07/2010 - 28/07/2010: 535 new accounts
28/07/2010 - 04/08/2010: 556 new accounts

EDIT: updated for new data.

EDIT2: Updated new data, again.

EDIT3: updated data, again. =)

EDIT4: Updated data, again.

EDIT5: Updated data.

EDIT6: updated data.


Last edited by kaelisebonrai on Sat Aug 07, 2010 5:51 pm, edited 7 times in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 4:41 pm 
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Yeah, growth seems to be slowing down overall.

Still, it's far from bad - especially considering that the most recent span between datasets was only six days long.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 6:20 pm 
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Theoretically only 6 days.. not sure if that's correct. hence the (?), since.. one would assume it would've been updated yesterday, if it only covered 6 days =) Hopefully RAWA, in his wisdom, will clear this one up. =)

EDIT: I'd not necessarily call that "growth"...

while it is a numerical increase, I'd suspect there are a great many hoods filled with dead avatars... if all of those accounts logged in... the cavern would be bustling. And we know it isn't. =)

Noting that there /should/ be a great deal more DRC Hoods, too, with this number of accounts... yet there isn't. That's a bit odd, isn't it?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 6:31 pm 
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kaelisebonrai wrote:
Noting that there /should/ be a great deal more DRC Hoods, too, with this number of accounts... yet there isn't. That's a bit odd, isn't it?


I think you have to chalk that up to the empty account thing. Accounts != Avatars. I know I have a few accounts that don't have any avatars on them...but that was due to an error with the way the sign-up handler processed email addresses. Those accounts are unusable.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 6:41 pm 
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Right, at which point, its looking even more dismal. :<


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 7:03 pm 
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The numbers will go down before they go back up. That's just how things are...

We can try to keep things stable by creating activities for people to participate in-cavern; that gives people a reason to visit. Numerous groups are doing what they can - just to name a few, The Guild of Healers, Amber Horizons, the Karaoke group, Tsahno's Story Night, the Guild of Peasants, The Meeting Place, the Cavern Book Club... all of these groups (and others I'm sorry to have forgotten) are doing what they can. And then there are special events, like last Saturday's DMR Concert, and Ktahdn's upcoming Radio KTDN Fifth Anniversary Celebration on June 19 (I'm looking forward to that). But... these events will only carry us so far.

When we reach the milestone of the first fan content being added to the game, that is when we can truly turn things around. At that point, with Cyan's permission, we could pursue a campaign of advertisement for the game, to let people who've left or idled know that the game is once again growing and there are new things to do, and to bring in new players. But I would not try such a thing until we reach that point.

Right now, the model followed by new players is:
* People join game
* Slightly smaller set of those people actually get it working
* Smaller number of people decide they like the game
* Smaller than that number of people complete all the content
* A very tiny portion of those people stick around after finishing the content, because there is no time line for the introduction of new things to do

If we tried to pull more people in now, it wouldn't change the model of how things are happening... the last two steps are where we need to address things. When people get frustrated with content they can't solve, there needs to be other things they can try, to keep their interest up - and when people have solved everything, there needs to be the promise of forthcoming content so they stick around.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 8:24 pm 
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(Date fixed. And accounts corrected for the 9th. Apologies.) :)

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Last edited by RAWA on Thu Jun 10, 2010 8:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 8:30 pm 
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Thanks, RAWA! =)


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 9:33 pm 
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kaelisebonrai wrote:
Noting that there /should/ be a great deal more DRC Hoods, too, with this number of accounts... yet there isn't. That's a bit odd, isn't it?

Yeah, that's an observation I made very early on, but just as OHB commented, there were a lot of people who initially had problems with the signups or the downloads and ended up submitting two, three, four or more account requests with different email addresses, so I always thought the initial account figure was overstating the position by a long way.

In a way, there's an up-side to that as it means that the initial peak isn't as big as it appeared to be so the subsequent sag isn't so pronounced. but yeah, it's still a "negative trend".

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 9:36 pm 
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Marten wrote:
Right now, the model followed by new players is:
* People join game
* Slightly smaller set of those people actually get it working
* Smaller number of people decide they like the game
* Smaller than that number of people complete all the content
* A very tiny portion of those people stick around after finishing the content, because there is no time line for the introduction of new things to do

If we tried to pull more people in now, it wouldn't change the model of how things are happening... the last two steps are where we need to address things. When people get frustrated with content they can't solve, there needs to be other things they can try, to keep their interest up - and when people have solved everything, there needs to be the promise of forthcoming content so they stick around.

"the last two steps are where we need to address things"
There's not much you can do about it unfortunately.
People who come for the content and don't complete it. If they don't complete it it is most likely because:
1) They do not enjoy the content - nothing we can do about that. And, no, custom Ages will not save Uru, at best it will marginally increase the playerbase, and increase its lifetime, not more. Creating Ages is difficult and long, we won't suddenly have tons of Ages if Uru goes open source.
2) The game is too difficult - we can help here; but that doesn't mean that those people will stay after that.
3) They had no interest in it in the first place but they tried anyway because it was free. That last reason most likely makes for most of the current ghost population of Uru. That's how free games are.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 2:28 am 
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Yes, it's a hard game and yes, it's always going to be out of the norm. Those are givens.
One can't ever really compare URU with anything else because ... there's nothing quite like it. But, I'm sure that while many may give a look and that's that. There are also many others who may take a longer look and keep themselves open for new perks too on any level - be that fan based content or whatever happens.

There's just such a huge amount that can't be predicted. It's impossible to know what might happen when fan based ages are more easily available - or, for that matter, whether whatever happens will be good, bad or just unexpected. This entire situation with URU/MOULa and Cyan and the continuance of fan support and interest after all this time has no previous analogue that I'm aware of,

However many new accounts become "ghost" accounts after a time might be interesting - but, also not particularly meaningful. What would be meaningful is something that we'll probably never know: How many of all the new accounts turn into new additional fans of URU - who continue to await whatever new developments there are. And, how many others may come to check what's going on when anything at all changes.

However, it's great to get RAWA's updates. They are our only indicators presently, however hard to understand those statistics might be, and nevertheless, I find them encouraging - and, I think, that's all one can say right now.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 4:34 am 
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My $0.02 on this is:

Yes, it would be great to have 10,000 people signed in at all times.

However, as it is, we are getting some new people...so that's good. We're keeping the CAVCON steady...so that's good.

But there's no new official content, so people get bored and leave...TEMPORARILY. This presents a lovely idea to me. I know that when there is new content, MOUL will be in a place to abound with life again at a moment's notice. Additionally, having a quieter cavern means I'm less distracted and less inclined to spend hours in-cavern chatting about the usual drivel. The upshot is that I have more time to concentrate on my MOUL related projects...such as BabelBot, the KI Directory, and the other ones that I haven't spoken about yet.

I know that there aren't exactly a lot of people around to take advantage of what I'm working on......YET. I'm laying a groundwork so that when things REALLY get cooking, my stuff will be in place to benefit all.

So for me, a quieter cavern is a good and bad thing all rolled into one...but only when I look at it with perspective and dream of the future.

[insert sappy confidence building theme music here......and fade to black]

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