CAVCON Meter

Tai'lahr · **Posted:** Fri Oct 12, 2012 9:54 am

Wow, yes, very helpful. Thank you, RAWA.

Malfhok · **Posted:** Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:49 am

Cool! Thank you, RAWA!

One question… The CAVCON 4.2 number intrigues me. Does that seriously mean that we are 20% of the way to CAVCON 5?

chrissifniotis · **Posted:** Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:11 pm

RAWA wrote:

Yay!

:)

Yay!

:)

Thanks for the update RAWA.

CaptainQuery · **Posted:** Fri Oct 12, 2012 4:59 pm

Thank you RAWA! So glad you responded to some of our concerns for more information.

Jamie Marchant · **Posted:** Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:06 pm

Thanks RAWA!

matthornb · **Posted:** Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:17 pm

Awesome. Very encouraging.

Thanks RAWA!

Mac_Fife · **Posted:** Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:34 pm

The server "Welcome" message doesn't seem to have caught up with this news yet

RAWA · **Posted:** Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:32 pm

Malfhok wrote:

One question… The CAVCON 4.2 number intrigues me. Does that seriously mean that we are 20% of the way to CAVCON 5?

Not exactly. It simply means that donations in September exceeded expenses by roughly 20%. As we've been bouncing between CAVCON 4 and CAVCON 2, I expect that 20% will be going to replenish the reserve fund a bit.

CAVCON 5 is a bit more nebulous, as can be seen by the fact that there have been some minor updates in the past even without reaching the official CAVCON 5. CAVCON 5 doesn't lend itself to a simple calculation. It requires an express decision from the Powers that Be that we're in a position to be making regular minor updates to MOULa.

Mac_Fife wrote:

The server "Welcome" message doesn't seem to have caught up with this news yet ;)

For now, the "Welcome" message is tracking the current month's donations (without the decimal). It is possible that I'll add the decimal portion to the welcome message going forward.

RAWA

Mac_Fife · **Posted:** Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:28 pm

RAWA wrote:

Malfhok wrote:

One question… The CAVCON 4.2 number intrigues me. Does that seriously mean that we are 20% of the way to CAVCON 5?

Not exactly. It simply means that donations in September exceeded expenses by roughly 20%. As we've been bouncing between CAVCON 4 and CAVCON 2, I expect that 20% will be going to replenish the reserve fund a bit.

I'm not sure I'm following the logic of that representation method - by that reasoning if CAVCON 3 represents parity between donations and expenses and 4.2 represents a 20% excess over expenses, then there's no ground between 3.0 and 4.1 that means anything

And how do you rank a shortfall against expenses by that method? Mirroring what is suggested above then missing the expenses target by 10% ought to give a CAVCON of 1.9 and no place for a CAVCON of 2.X under any circumstance - that seems a bit weird and makes the 2.5 of a few months back impossible to interpret :shock:

.

Dalken Starbyne · **Joined:** Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:06 pm **Posts:** 152

Mac, try to remember that the CAVCONs on the whole are general representations in themselves, so working out these inbetween decimals could still be an ongoing process for RAWA (I'm not him, so obviously I dunno that for sure). Each CAVCON level represents more of a set of criteria that have been met rather than any exact number that can be precisely calculated ahead of time. That said, this is the way I would interpret it: CAVCON 1 is where we have NO reserve fund and donations aren't meeting expenses, whereas CAVCON 2 means we have a reserve fund, but donations still aren't meeting expenses for a given month. By that logic, CAVCON 1.9 would be falling under expected monthly expenses by about 10% with no reserve to cover the excess, whereas CAVCON 2.9 would be falling under expected monthly expenses by about 10% WITH a reserve to cover the excess. CAVCON 3 means we've met expenses for that month, whereas CAVCON 4 means we've exceeded expenses for that month. By that definition, anything between CAVCON 3 and 4 couldn't really mean we've expressly exceeded monthly expenses, as that would imply we've already reached CAVCON 4. Of course, it can't really say how close we are to exceeding monthly expenses because that's a situation where we either have met and haven't exceeded monthly expenses, or we've met AND have exceeded them. The CAVCON definitions weren't really designed with decimals in mind, so we may well just have to realize that there's no real room between CAVCON 3 and 4 for decimals without entirely redefining what they mean. RAWA may come in and override me with some brilliant idea, but the best I can come up with is some method of indicating where we are within a margin of error in meeting the current month's expenses (i.e., 3.5 would mean we're "about halfway" to definitely exceeding the month's expenses), but that would be a VERY nebulous area and wouldn't ever translate to the solid CAVCON numbers).

Charura · **Joined:** Wed Oct 14, 2009 4:14 pm **Posts:** 1773

I'm happy the CAVCON (Thanks to everyone that can donate) is healthy and I can still be around those of us that love this arena and still foster those that are new to the game.

chrissifniotis · **Posted:** Sat Oct 13, 2012 12:18 am

Dalken Starbyne wrote:

... CAVCON 3 means we've met expenses for that month, whereas CAVCON 4 means we've exceeded expenses for that month. By that definition, anything between CAVCON 3 and 4 couldn't really mean we've expressly exceeded monthly expenses, as that would imply we've already reached CAVCON 4. Of course, it can't really say how close we are to exceeding monthly expenses because that's a situation where we either have met and haven't exceeded monthly expenses, or we've met AND have exceeded them. The CAVCON definitions weren't really designed with decimals in mind, so we may well just have to realize that there's no real room between CAVCON 3 and 4 for decimals without entirely redefining what they mean. RAWA may come in and override me with some brilliant idea, but the best I can come up with is some method of indicating where we are within a margin of error in meeting the current month's expenses (i.e., 3.5 would mean we're "about halfway" to definitely exceeding the month's expenses), but that would be a VERY nebulous area and wouldn't ever translate to the solid CAVCON numbers).

Hm, did you think it's possible that the plots within CAVCON 3 to 4.9 could be an exponential representation of the monthly donations? The way I seem to see it is since 4.X represents approximately (X x 10)% of the growth in funding between months, it seems reasonable to me to perceive 3.X as more roughly X% of the growth in funding, since anything below 10% is not considered exceeding the monthly expenses, defined as CAVCON 4.

sideshow118 · **Joined:** Thu May 25, 2006 1:00 am **Posts:** 538

I've devoloped a mathmatical formula the will precisely describe CAVCON levels at any given moment: http://i.imgur.com/bT4jf.gif

Pretty obvious, really. Simple and elegant.

Gondar · **Posted:** Sat Oct 13, 2012 3:33 am

Well. We finally got a resolution to wanting more resolution (heh). Now we can tell give or take some more of how much we are short or over the things.. it doesn't say what our shortfall is and how much the reserve fund can go (a second and third decimal number? So maybe 2.32 means we're below funding in cavcon 2, we're at 30% of the needed funding, and the shortfall will take about 20% of the slush fund? As a random example). However, it does say not only now how much we're short by, but how much we'd be over by. Both of which are helpful actually for getting some idea of how much donations are or aren't coming in.

Thanks RAWA! This is probably the best thing short of the full-out dollar values, and I fully understand we can't actually get those. Now we have a bit more to work towards!

(Now, the next step is open age creation, so we can give a good incentive to donate..

)

Funding as a quantum wave event explains so much.. multiple payment requests are like a diffraction, and each one has a probability of getting some of my money at a given time... and it's only treated as a point of money once it's been observed to have been spent!

DLordofTime · **Posted:** Sat Oct 13, 2012 11:11 am

sideshow118 wrote:

I've devoloped a mathmatical formula the will precisely describe CAVCON levels at any given moment: http://i.imgur.com/bT4jf.gif

Pretty obvious, really. Simple and elegant.

Plus a constant.

Quote:

Well. We finally got a resolution to wanting more resolution (heh). Now we can tell give or take some more of how much we are short or over the things.. it doesn't say what our shortfall is and how much the reserve fund can go (a second and third decimal number? So maybe 2.32 means we're below funding in cavcon 2, we're at 30% of the needed funding, and the shortfall will take about 20% of the slush fund? As a random example). However, it does say not only now how much we're short by, but how much we'd be over by. Both of which are helpful actually for getting some idea of how much donations are or aren't coming in.

You ask for too much.

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