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 Post subject: Pellet oven linearity
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 7:39 pm 
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We've gotten a lot of information out of the ovens in the past month, but there are still basic principles that haven't really been hammered out. I decided to test a simple one: does the pellet score of a batch equal the sum of the pellet scores of the four ovens? In other words, do the ovens add linearly, or do their settings interfere with each other in some way?

(On Monday, IngisKahn said: "I can confirm that Amount has a purely linear effect." I wasn't sure what he meant, though, and he didn't cite any data.)

To test this, I tried various combinations of ovens being "on" or "off". "On," in this post, means an oven set to 30/30/30 (on the 0-50 scale); "off" means an oven set to .5/.5/.5 (the lowest the slider can be set without deactivating the oven system).

As is now well-known, if all ovens are "on" (30/30/30), you get a batch of pellets with an average KI score of 960-980 -- nearly as high as that measure can get. When they're all "off" (.5/.5/.5), you get completely unreactive pellets ("floaters") with a uniform KI score of zero.

I didn't try every combination, but here's what I got:

Code:
Ovens ON: Average KI points per pellet  (standard deviation)

1:     471.2   (8.2)
2:     266.6   (3.4)
3:     249.2   (4.2)
4:       0.0   (0.0)
1,2:   729.0   (8.2)
1,3:   705.2  (11.0)
1,4:   463.2   (7.2)
2,3:   513.4   (7.5)
1,2,3: 971.2  (16.0)


As you can see, this looks very much like a simple additive process. The value when ovens 1,2 are on is close to the sum of oven 1 and oven 2:

Code:
Ovens ON: Measured points : Predicted points (error)

1,2:   729.0 : 737.8  (+1.2 %)
1,3:   705.2 : 720.4  (+2.2 %)
1,4:   463.2 : 471.2  (+1.7 %)
1,2,3: 971.2 : 987.0  (+1.6 %)


And the well-tested value (1,2,3,4) also fits this model. It should be the same as (1,2,3), since oven 4 contributes 0 at the 30/30/30 setting, and that's just what people find.

Caveats:

All the prediction errors were positive. In other words, all the measured values for multi-oven runs were just a bit lower than the sum of the ovens. This could be experimental error, or it could indicate a nonlinearity that doesn't get large until higher settings.

All of the pellets I tested were in the low ("floater") to middle (small and large "red ring") range. We know that the KI score drops off again for "white ring" and "exploder" pellets. I doubt that simple linear addition will remain true for those.

However, we might see a simple peak function, where the oven values add up to a certain limit (1000) and then subtract after that.

More on these tests later. I'm on vacation for the next week. :)

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 7:43 pm 
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Quote:
However, we might see a simple peak function, where the oven values add up to a certain limit (1000) and then subtract after that.
I think that's in the published forum literature somewhere already - 1000 minus some randomised adjustment.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 9:09 pm 
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belford wrote:
(On Monday, IngisKahn said: "I can confirm that Amount has a purely linear effect." I wasn't sure what he meant, though, and he didn't cite any data.)

The meaning is simply that for any given time/temp setting on an oven, the nutrient score of the pellets increases (or decreases) in a linear fashion as you raise the amount setting. For a time/temp setting that produces positive nutrient scores, the number of points will go up in a linear fashion, peaking at the maxium amount setting. For a time/temp setting that produces negative scores, the number of points will, of course, always be zero, but the underlying score will decrease linearly as you increase the amount setting.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 9:13 pm 
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Where "Amount" is the second oven control (aka "Weight", "Pressure", "Balance"...) Ok, thanks.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 7:06 am 
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 1:14 am 
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I'm not in often enough to check this throroughly (especially this weekend, as I'm at an SF con), but based on your statement that the fourth oven adds nothing, I tried a batch with the fourth "mixer" turned back on (which means I can now only use the journey cloth to get to the ovens). This got me my first-ever 1,000 score, plus a 970, 952, 962 and 982. I have to go back to the con now and will be unable to return to this for a while, but you might try turning the fourth mixer on and seeing if the fourth oven now adds to your score.

ETA: Vital info I forgot to mention: This was at 30/30/30. The book in which I record my results is at home, but I know this was the first 1,000, and I believe the other numbers are generally higher than my average at 30/30/30.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 8:17 am 
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Fax Paladin wrote:
I'm not in often enough to check this throroughly (especially this weekend, as I'm at an SF con), but based on your statement that the fourth oven adds nothing, I tried a batch with the fourth "mixer" turned back on (which means I can now only use the journey cloth to get to the ovens). This got me my first-ever 1,000 score, plus a 970, 952, 962 and 982. I have to go back to the con now and will be unable to return to this for a while, but you might try turning the fourth mixer on and seeing if the fourth oven now adds to your score.

ETA: Vital info I forgot to mention: This was at 30/30/30. The book in which I record my results is at home, but I know this was the first 1,000, and I believe the other numbers are generally higher than my average at 30/30/30.


Hi Fax...

I tried this tonight and got the following scores:

974
986
954
968
1000

This is using the 30/30/30 formula...

I guess it works! :D

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 1:08 pm 
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I am conducting similar tests (and hopefully I'll confirm your results) but as one of my colleagues pointed out to me, what if it just so happens that the graphs of the ovens appear to be additive at the 30/30/30 point? It would be a strange coincidence, but it might be worth it to test them at other values as well (15/15/15, for example, and you could also use that experiment to see what the individual graph of each oven looks like; whether it's a geometric or arithmetic increase, for example).

I'll post when my tests are complete, but for now this was a valuable piece of information for determining the behavior of the ovens.

Dovahn

EDIT: I realized that it would be more likely that, rather than only at 30/30/30, this addition property were to only work when the three values were the same. That, perhaps, would be a better venue of testing.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 8:18 pm 
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There's no magic to get the fourth oven to work. It merely overloads with time and temperature set too high (as in the 30/30/30 setting).

Here's the formula (using the 50 point scale) if Time * Temp > 690 then output is 0 for oven 4.

These are time/temp overload thresholds:
35 20
30 23.5
25 28
20 35


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 10:21 pm 
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About the mixer issue:

I ran my tests with two avatars. One had shut down and drained all three (working) pools. The other only touched the single pool necessary to reach the oven chamber; he left the others in full operation.

To eliminate error, I ran the "1 ON" test with both avatars. The results were identical, to within the margin of error. (471.2 vs 474.0).

I've done other comparison runs with the same two avatars. They all support the conclusion: the pool and mixer state has no effect on the pellets.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 3:49 am 
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Sulo wrote:
Fax Paladin wrote:
I'm not in often enough to check this throroughly (especially this weekend, as I'm at an SF con), but based on your statement that the fourth oven adds nothing, I tried a batch with the fourth "mixer" turned back on (which means I can now only use the journey cloth to get to the ovens). This got me my first-ever 1,000 score, plus a 970, 952, 962 and 982. I have to go back to the con now and will be unable to return to this for a while, but you might try turning the fourth mixer on and seeing if the fourth oven now adds to your score.

ETA: Vital info I forgot to mention: This was at 30/30/30. The book in which I record my results is at home, but I know this was the first 1,000, and I believe the other numbers are generally higher than my average at 30/30/30.


Hi Fax...

I tried this tonight and got the following scores:

974
986
954
968
1000

This is using the 30/30/30 formula...

I guess it works! :D


Next Night:

Tried the same formula 30/30/30 tonight with the mixer on and the scores were diferent:

968
984
966
978
982

No 1000 score this round...

Currently in process of bake with the mixer off and using the 30/30/30 formula...

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Last edited by Sulo on Mon Jul 23, 2007 6:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 6:24 am 
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One statistical measure that should be monitored is that of "standard deviation" - in other words, how even the pellet scores are around the average. There is some variation for different batches of the same recipe; sometimes you get good ones, sometimes less so.

I'm wondering if the "mixer effects" are simply just due to these otherwise random variations. Best way to test this would be to run several batches (10?) without touching the T/A/T settings, then turn on (or off) the mixers and run another 10.

My expectations is the random variation would be smoothed out then and the real effects (if any) would be apparent.

D'nn (dmuk)

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 6:58 am 
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Sulo wrote:
Sulo wrote:
Fax Paladin wrote:
I'm not in often enough to check this throroughly (especially this weekend, as I'm at an SF con), but based on your statement that the fourth oven adds nothing, I tried a batch with the fourth "mixer" turned back on (which means I can now only use the journey cloth to get to the ovens). This got me my first-ever 1,000 score, plus a 970, 952, 962 and 982. I have to go back to the con now and will be unable to return to this for a while, but you might try turning the fourth mixer on and seeing if the fourth oven now adds to your score.

ETA: Vital info I forgot to mention: This was at 30/30/30. The book in which I record my results is at home, but I know this was the first 1,000, and I believe the other numbers are generally higher than my average at 30/30/30.


Hi Fax...

I tried this tonight and got the following scores:

974
986
954
968
1000

This is using the 30/30/30 formula...

I guess it works! :D


Next Night:

Tried the same formula 30/30/30 tonight with the mixer on and the scores were diferent:

968
984
966
978
982

No 1000 score this round...

Currently in process of bake with the mixer off and using the 30/30/30 formula...


Ok, I baked the last batch with the mixer off, 30/30/30 and these are the results:

990
980
974
966
982

So, it seems the mixer being off has nothing to do with the scores regularity... :)

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 2:38 pm 
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From my notes:

Avatar 1 (three pools drained): Oven 1 on: mean 471.2, stddev 8.2
Avatar 2 (one pool drained): Oven 1 on: mean 474.0, stddev 4.4

So the difference is under one sigma, both ways.

The stddev on my original data is shown in the original table.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 3:42 pm 
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As has been posted in the other pellet thread, the actual base pellet batch points range from 0 to 200 and the Ki score for each pellet is obtained by multiplying it by a random number in the range of 4.76 to 5.

EDIT: clarification


Last edited by IngisKahn on Mon Jul 23, 2007 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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