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 Post subject: Current Lake Health
PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:55 am 
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So, the topic of pellet points is always a heated and sometimes interesting one. What we don't hear about is the health of the lake algae. If you haven't read about that, see this post -> http://mystonline.com/forums/viewtopic. ... 853#323853

Basically, every time you drop a pellet, you get points (0 to 1000) based on the quality of the pellets. But the pellets have an effect on the "lake health" number as well (-200 to 200).

While someone attempted to explain to me exactly how you get this number, I'll be honest and say I didn't quite follow it. But trust me, it's kinda technical. But, the number is there. And I trust that the person who got the number knows what they're taking about. :)

Total Lake Health (as of earlier today): 85,369,036

So, what does that represent? Well, it's hard to say. What we don't have are statistics on the number of pellets dropped, the values of those pellets, or the time it took those pellets to bake. Each recipe is different and always yields slightly random results.

If we assume, for example, that no pellets are ever lost, and that all baked pellets used the same recipe, we can come up with some estimates. This table shows the number of pellets baked and the total time devoted to baking.

Code:
     1 hour            2 hours            3 hours            4 hours            5 hours
 25  3414761|78 yrs    3414761|155.9 yrs  3414761|233.9 yrs  3414761|311.9 yrs  3414761|389.8 yrs
 50  1707380|39 yrs    1707380|78 yrs     1707380|116.9 yrs  1707380|155.9 yrs  1707380|194.9 yrs
 75  1138253|26 yrs    1138253|52 yrs     1138253|78 yrs     1138253|104 yrs    1138253|129.9 yrs
100  853690 |19.5 yrs  853690 |39 yrs     853690 |58.5 yrs   853690 |78 yrs     853690 |97.5 yrs
125  682952 |15.6 yrs  682952 |31.2 yrs   682952 |46.8 yrs   682952 |62.4 yrs   682952 |78 yrs
150  569126 |13 yrs    569126 |26 yrs     569126 |39 yrs     569126 |52 yrs     569126 |65 yrs
175  487823 |11.1 yrs  487823 |22.3 yrs   487823 |33.4 yrs   487823 |44.6 yrs   487823 |55.7 yrs
200  426845 |9.7 yrs   426845 |19.5 yrs   426845 |29.2 yrs   426845 |39 yrs     426845 |48.7 yrs

Key: [x-axis] bake time [y-axis] net health per pellet


So, the last thing we can do is try to figure out what the real values are likely to be. How much time has been spent? What percentage of pellets are discarded? What's the average pellet score?

Operating under the assumption that the majority of points accumulated are done by people who drop pellets religiously and therefore are likely to use the best recipes and accidentally discard pellets very infrequently, I think it's fair to assume that the majority of pellets add 175-200 points to the lake health score and the average bake time is 3 hours. That represents about 30 years.

To allow for people experimenting with other recipes, accidental drops, and higher bake times, etc, (without having any data on which to make a scientific adjustment), we can reduce the average lake health benefit to 100 and the average bake time to 3.5. That represents about 68 years.

So, how much time has been spent? Given that I haven't taken a degree in statistics, my best guess is about 50 years.


Final note: before someone says "OMG HAX!" - yes, friendly hacking was used to get the number. But remember, such "good" and "friendly" hacking is how we learn about the inner workings of the game. Without such pioneering work, things like WhoM, PlasmaClient, and the upcoming language packs from the URU Localization Project wouldn't be possible.

I hope you enjoy this information. If you did, make sure to take a moment to hug your local hacker.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 12:38 pm 
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Me gives OHB a big Hug. :wink: off to shake OHBots hand.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 2:22 pm 
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So what you're telling us is that at this point, the lake should be glowing brighter than the sun? :D

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:00 am 
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So... when does the lake actually get brighter?

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:03 am 
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Hms, good question, Keiya...

If we're almost to 100 million "health points" or whatever - why has it not changed at all? =/


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:19 am 
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kaelisebonrai wrote:
Hms, good question, Keiya...

If we're almost to 100 million "health points" or whatever - why has it not changed at all? =/


Perhaps it's a 32-bit unsigned integer and the lake's only at 1.98765%? Shoot me now.

(Note the lovely 9, 8, 7, 6, 5 progression!)

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:21 am 
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...that's a horrible, horrible way to do it, and if Cyan did it /that/ way, they should die in a fire.... seriously. =P

Because the time that's been spent on it so far is /already/ excessive. =P


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:22 am 
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kaelisebonrai wrote:
...that's a horrible, horrible way to do it, and if Cyan did it /that/ way, they should die in a fire.... seriously. =P

Because the time that's been spent on it so far is /already/ excessive. =P


I was totally just kidding...

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:23 am 
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I know, but the sheer thought of it is /terrifying/ =P

*shudders*

To even /think/ of it O-o


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:24 am 
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kaelisebonrai wrote:
I know, but the sheer thought of it is /terrifying/ =P

*shudders*

To even /think/ of it O-o


Just be glad I didn't say 64-bit number.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:26 am 
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don't /scare/ me like that, ohb! =P


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 12, 2011 3:36 am 
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Absolutely nothing (client-side) is hooked up to do anything with that data. So while the pellets do count, it's meant literally, as in they are counted on the server.

But absolutely nothing on the client ever checks the value of the pellet total to enable/disable things. The only time it is used is when a pellet is dropped (get the existing total, add the new points, save it).


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 12, 2011 4:42 am 
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That's not entirely relevant.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 12, 2011 5:10 am 
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Actually, it's entirely irrelevant. I see no point in continuing to criticize Cyan about how they chose to execute the technical aspects of this puzzle when the real issue is in their failure to provide enough information to maintain our interest until its conclusion.

I really wish Cyan had invested more in this "storyline" to provide us with the ability to investigate the issue in an IC manner and deduce legitimate goals that we could work towards (or against). Then, perhaps we could put this information into context and have a better idea of how far we've come and how far we have left to go.

Thank you for sharing this information, OHB. Perhaps one day, data such as this will actually be useful in solving the greatest puzzle in all of the whole D'niverse, so I've added a thread link to the collection of Lake Lighting Project Historical Data Links.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 12, 2011 6:42 am 
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JWPlatt wrote:
That's not entirely relevant.


I agree. It's only partially relevant. My post was about what the number /is/, not what it's supposed to get to, assuming it is actually supposed to get somewhere.

But, you're right. You can't fault people for answering the next logical question: what does that number mean?

We only know 2 things for a fact:

1. RAWA says it does something.
2. That something doesn't exist in any client code.

If anything, we want to know more!

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